CCData recently released a report highlighting how 2024 marks a historic moment in the evolution of digital assets, particularly Bitcoin, which is increasingly moving toward the mainstream with massive adoption by institutional investors.
In the 2025 H1 Outlook Report released on Tuesday (December 17), Bitcoin’s appeal has grown significantly since the long-awaited launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States in January 2024. This milestone represents a major victory for the digital asset sector after a long battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which has been stringent in regulating the industry. As a result, the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market have drastically shifted.
Moreover, Bitcoin and other digital assets have become a focal point in political debates, including the 2024 U.S. presidential election, with Donald Trump expressing his support for digital asset-friendly regulations. This situation has spurred massive adoption by financial institutions, with Bitcoin surpassing the psychological $100,000 level for the first time on December 5.
Bitcoin Gains Ground with Institutional Investors
Throughout 2024, Bitcoin saw a 157% increase year-to-date (YTD), rising from $42,300 in early January to $105,300 by December 18, 2024. The main catalyst for this price surge has been institutional adoption through the crypto spot ETF.
The Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. has become one of the best-performing ETFs in history, with cumulative net fund inflows surpassing 500,000 BTC. Additionally, the Bitcoin spot ETF is now the largest holder of Bitcoin, surpassing Satoshi Nakamoto’s 1.1 million BTC holdings.
Institutional confidence in Bitcoin continues to rise, supported by a regulatory environment expected to be more favorable under the new U.S. administration. Post-election, the Bitcoin spot ETF in the U.S. has seen an average of 2,000 BTC purchased per week.
One of the leaders in this sector is BlackRock with its iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which surpassed $50 billion in assets in just 228 days, making it the fastest-growing ETF in history.
“ETFs often experience an initial surge in the first year after their launch. We expect fund inflows to continue increasing as adoption expands,” said CCData.
Bitcoin Seen as Digital Gold
Bitcoin spot ETFs are often compared to gold ETFs, which saw significant growth after their launch in 2004. If this trend repeats, Bitcoin ETFs are projected to experience rapid growth in their early years.
Bitcoin is also increasingly compared to precious metals, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell referring to it as “digital gold.” Looking at the three criteria for Bitcoin’s acceptance as a currency, the asset continues to prove itself as a store of value, with its value and adoption increasing over its 15 years of existence.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization relative to gold recently reached a new all-time high of 9.88% on December 6, surpassing the previous record set in October 2021.
Bitcoin’s value still lags far behind gold by a factor of up to ten times. However, Bitcoin’s lower valuation compared to gold presents an opportunity for the industry to continue growing Bitcoin’s value.
Bitcoin Market Cycle and Future Projections
Bitcoin’s market cycle remains a key focus for industry players. Historical data shows that price peaks typically occur between 371 and 546 days after Bitcoin Halving, although each cycle tends to last longer as the market matures.
According to CCData, two scenarios are projected for 2025. In the base scenario, Bitcoin is predicted to peak in early Q2. Meanwhile, the optimistic scenario shows a potential peak in November, similar to the pattern observed in 2021.
What makes this cycle unique is that Bitcoin’s all-time high was reached before the Halving, something that has never happened before. Factors such as institutional investor fund inflows and Bitcoin adoption as a national reserve will also significantly impact the duration and intensity of this market cycle.
“Based on returns and data from previous Halving cycles, our projections for Bitcoin next year place the baseline around $155,000, with a bullish case around $195,000,” concluded CCData.
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