Popular TradingView analyst Alan Santana recently provided an in-depth analysis on Bitcoin’s October closing, especially regarding the new trend emerging in its price pattern.
According to Santana, Bitcoin’s monthly price chart shows a confusing pattern with several technical signals open to different interpretations. Through a two-sided approach, Santana objectively outlines his perspective based on both technical signals and his personal market sentiment.
Bitcoin Monthly Chart Overview
Santana explains that this month, Bitcoin has recorded consecutive green candlestick closures, marking the first time since its peak in March. However, trading volume has remained notably low, reaching one of the lowest levels recorded this year.
“This month saw nearly the lowest trading volume ever. Only a few months in recent years have recorded lower volume than this one,” Santana remarked.
The double top pattern visible on Bitcoin’s monthly chart signals a possible reversal. In March 2024, the monthly RSI closed at 76, whereas in October, it closed at 66, indicating a significant decline. Additionally, the monthly MACD is showing a standard upward curve, though the histogram has continued to decline since March 2024.
Santana concludes that despite some bullish signs, weaknesses still linger in the market. He notes that the double top pattern is a reversal signal, and that very low trading volume reflects bearish sentiment, though low trading activity might also mean that major moves have yet to start.
Conflicting Technical Signals: Bullish or Bearish?
Santana also highlights that the monthly chart is sending mixed signals. Bitcoin has risen, yet many altcoins haven’t followed suit. The bull flag, which typically signals a continuation of an upward trend, is no longer visible on the chart. He suggests that predicting Bitcoin’s next move has become difficult and recommends investors look to altcoins for additional clues.
He adds that when Bitcoin pauses, consolidates, or enters a phase of uncertainty, this pattern could help anticipate the next direction. “If altcoins are dropping while Bitcoin consolidates, it suggests that Bitcoin might follow a downward move, as the market operates in unison,” explains Santana.
Santana also compares the current pattern with what happened in 2021. While most altcoins peaked in April/May 2021, Bitcoin reached a new high in November. He suggests this is part of an irregular correction that ultimately forms higher highs, in part due to inflation from increased money supply during the Covid-19 pandemic.
Bitcoin: Correction Before Resuming Uptrend?
Santana believes that while Bitcoin is on track to potentially reach a new high around the Fibonacci extension level of $102,000, the market may face a correction first. He warns that this correction might catch many market participants off guard.
“As the market often grows beyond expectations during bullish phases, it can do the same during bearish phases, reaching a major liquidity point,” Santana explains. According to him, this phenomenon is evident as many players have not yet participated in Bitcoin’s price rally, indicating that the market isn’t in a full bullish cycle yet.
Most crypto assets, including Ethereum and other major altcoins, remain at lower prices, which don’t fully reflect participation from all market players.
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